Thursday, September 20, 2007

9/11/07: never forget (the bad memes and arguments)

Before I start, does anyone know of a way to do those column expand/contract things without my using things like "xml editor" and such? The Blogger Help section gives directions that are impossible to follow. The reason I ask is because I'm going to be posting mostly long entries and older ones will be buried under the likes of... well, this. (WARNING: INCONCEIVABLY LONG)

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Every Monday I spend a big hunk of time playing catch-up on RealClearPolitics' endless array of links. Since I didn't get to it on Monday the 10th, I had four days worth of material to read on the 11th. On a typical Monday I'll come across 2-5 irritating columns, but on the 11th it was a full set of 10, and all on the same subject. The war.

As I've said many times and will repeat again, I don't hold any ill will towards those who were opposed to the war at the start, and I'm not angry at those who want to end it now. It's an absolute muddle. In any given three month period there's some new really bad event or trend to show how far Iraq is from anything remotely considered 'mission accomplished'. That said, I am touchy on the subject.

My church has a very large military contingent for its size, and probably the bravest person my hometown produced in my lifetime was fortunate to avoid being killed in Ramadi during the height of violence there. I don't take the mission lightly, and I hate it when people either for or against the war debate it like a partisan political fight. I've gone over the administration's inability to make a decent case in the past, and I think part of that is the Rove-created media approach which works wonders when things are simple but falls apart when it gets hairy. Other right-wing pundits (ie. Limbaugh) drive me crazy by explaining the war exclusively through a Republican vs Democrat prism or oversimplifying.

Before jumping into my original plan of lambasting war critics, let me point out two right-wing memes I dislike. First is "they're fighting for our freedom". In Iraq? I'm as hawkish as it gets and even I'm not willing to step out on that limb. I view Iraq as a US obligation and a vital security interest, but it's not like World War II where the fate of the free world directly hung in the balance. Another is the "if we leave then al Qaeda will take over Iraq" talking point, one that I've seen bandied about from far too many commentators. Even at its most powerful, al Qaeda and its related jihadi groups were never a threat to conquer Baghdad. When they bombed the golden mosque, the Shiite militias rose up and expelled Sunnis wholesale from many neighborhoods in the capital (and probably elsewhere). Al Qaeda never had a chance to defeat the raw manpower of the Shiites. The worst case scenario has always been a bigger, badder version of the sectarian violence witnessed after the Samarra bombing. Both of those talking points are simplistic and appeal to base emotions rather than being concerned about accuracy. And speaking of lacking accuracy...

Simon Jenkins spent quite a lot of time running through the usual criticisms, which most anyone can repeat by heart. That he classifies all Sunni chieftains as "Saddamist" is irritating but it's minor. What makes me target this column is the part where he does the most original thinking, that is, his call for the US to emulate the UK's withdrawal plan. In essence, cut a deal to empower local militias who will keep order.

This just might work in Basra, I don't know enough about that area of Iraq to argue. What little I do know about Basra is that there's no way to apply any lessons from there to the rest of Iraq. You don't have the Sunni/Shia tensions, and you don't have to worry about insurgents using Basra as a base of operations. The flashy, foreign-led section of the Sunni insurgency has actively targeted other provinces from wherever it's headquartered at the time. Sunnis in Anbar rose up against al Qaeda's Iraq franchise but still oppose the government or its current leaders. Rival Shiite groups might bicker and occasionally shoot at each other but they do so in order to control, not fight, the government. Getting two Shiite groups to leave each other alone, which is an uneasy truce to begin with, is an apple. Getting Sunnis and Shiites to leave each other alone isn't even an orange. Far more complicated, far more likely to break down into violence. Jenkins isn't a "so what if a genocidal civil war breaks out" type, he agrees that the US has a duty to the Iraqi people. It's puzzling to me why he thinks that such a facile solution as the UK/Basra model (which is still wholly unproven) is the way to uphold that duty.

Simon and Takeyh spin things a bit too hard. All Shia demand more vengeance on Sunnis, all Sunnis demand majority power? That's reductionism almost to the point of being racist. Saying that the surge hasn't had a measurable impact on insurgent activity is flat-out wrong, since it not only stopped the steady uptick in violence but also halved it. The "all it did was move insurgents elsewhere" talking point proves that they aren't looking seriously at the differences between the surge and other past offensives. Before we couldn't even get al Qaeda et al to leave Anbar, which was by far the easiest terrain for them. Now they're having to go into places with significant Shia populations, significant Iraqi military positions, or both. Clear/build/hold was the mantra since late 2004 but it wasn't a reality until now, as we're finally helping local populations get the confidence they need to fight back and keep the radicals from returning. Last but not least they trot out another drastic oversimplification, that the US being friendly towards Sunnis will automatically turn the Shia population against us. I have no doubt that some Shiite leaders are upset but their implication is that we should have snubbed the Sunnis forever and that's about as idiotic a prescription for Iraq as I can think of.

Scheuer provides this gem:

Bin Laden and his boys sit unmolested on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, planning more attacks in America because our bipartisan elite long ago delegated America's protection to a beleaguered Third World dictator.


Unmolested? That would be news to the thousands of incredibly elite soldiers in the area who kill Taliban by the hundreds on a regular basis. Maybe he means that they're unmolested in Pakistan. Okay, I'll give him that. And yes we rely on Third World dictator (Musharraf). The alternative is what, exactly? Pakistan has nukes and their major political figures are at least two of a very nasty subset (corrupt, incompetent, dictatorial, jihadist). Scheuer prides himself on being an expert on the region but he completely glosses over the very things which make the Afghanistan situation difficult. It would be like me ignoring demography when talking about future entitlement obligation. (I'll be coming back to that one soon enough)

Kevin Drum writes a staggeringly bad piece. I'm not sure where to begin. "The surge has produced only tiny gains in a few highly localized areas and has no chance of replicating those successes on a wide scale" is a whopper; 50%+ gains have been made in several of the most violent provinces and Baghdad neighborhoods, which in turn account for 90% of violence in Iraq. Saying that there is "no chance" of replicating the Anbar model dismisses the hard-earned people skills of our troops, and while I'm not going to pull a Jenkins and say that it's absolutely going to work it has worked everywhere the surge has gone. He goes on to wave away a post-withdrawal bloodbath by saying it would be bloody but short, and because he waves away hard-fought gains by our troops that makes it easy for him to reach his conclusion in 8 paragraphs.

The Nation thinks that if the US pulls out, the UN and the Arab League will be able to bring peace. I'm not going to dignify that with a response.

Gary Kamiya trips right out of the gate:

It's no surprise that Gen. David Petraeus' "anxiously awaited" evaluation of the war is to be given on the 10th and 11th of September. The not-so-subliminal message: We must do what Bush and Petraeus say or risk another 9/11.


Congress scheduled the hearings. That's just sloppy. He then goes on to say that the war on terror is "a palatable cover for vengeance and racism" and "the massacre in Haditha on a global scale", which is especially interesting because as the facts came out it became clear that the early 'Haditha massacre' narrative was incorrect and already most of the soldiers involved have been cleared. I'm not going to put more energy into this because it's primarily partisan bomb-throwing of the kind I so detest.

BUT WAIT, THERE'S MORE! The war isn't the only thing to generate bad columns!

Anthony Zinni is a heavy-hitter in foreign policy ranks, which makes it all the more silly for him to hand-wave his way around the fact that Musharraf is almost the worst possible "he's an SOB but he's our SOB" in that he's a dictator who can't secure his country against US enemies. As I mentioned earlier it's not as though we have better options per se, but Zinni takes things too far. Bush has handled Musharraf with kid gloves for 6 years now, we've hardly been unkind.

Richard Reeves goes after Fred Thompson with a huge logical leap. He points out that Reagan didn't really fight the growth in the size of government (true) and that Bush II has backed a lot of new spending (also true). Here's the conclusion of the column.

As for Thompson, it is hard to understand what the former senator really believes about the big government he wants to run. In his announcement speech he contradicts himself, saying:

"When I went to the Senate, I wanted to balance the budget, cut taxes, reform welfare, require Congress to live under the laws that they had imposed on others, and I wanted to begin the modernizing of our military ...

"Now these problems have only grown worse since that time. ... On our present course, deficit financing will saddle future generations with enormous taxes, jeopardize our economy and endanger our retirement programs. ... This path is economically unsustainable."

That sounds like he wants to rescue the nation from his party and his party's leader -- because all the terrible things he's talking about happened while George Bush and other Republicans were running the country. In the end, Thompson is telling us that, like Bush, he is a big-government conservative spending his children's and grandchildren's money.


How is that a contradiction? How is that proof that Fred wants a bigger government? If you're going to do partisan attacks at least make it easy to follow. Fred is talking about governing with conservative ideals, Reagan and Dubya and the GOP congress often didn't, soooooo... Fred's lying? Wuh?

Last but not least it's John Tammy to hand-wave away the coming entitlement crunch. I have yet to see an economist, even with the most rose-colored glasses imaginable, provide figures to show how the US/EU/Japan/Russia/China Axis of Aging will be able to cope with the growing number of retirees without some combination of unsustainable taxes or massive benefit cuts or both. Tammy trots out productivity gains, without even trying to show how that will close the gap. He trots out globalization as though people in Bombay will be paying taxes to Washington DC or Rome. He even has the audacity to say that we'll be better off in the long run because raising children is expensive. Because workers are amazingly productive, just not productive enough to offset the cost of being born. Or something. John's logic is on par with the reviving elbow, only in one case it's pro wrestling and in the other it's economics. I think Tammy should be held to a higher standard than Hulk Hogan.

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See what I mean about wanting to do the expand/contract thing? My gosh.

2 comments:

Tris Xavier said...

Hey Ditch,

Forgive the brevity of this comment, but while I don't entirely agree with the points you bring up (which would be a while to describe) I enjoy your writing and your analysis, and I'm glad that unlike so many politicians today, you at least have a core that you will stick to and defend.

Word up.

Anonymous said...

Insightful as always. Sort of ties into the Bad Punditry entry from earlier. People will say anything to get what they consider to be a good point across.